More Than Just a Game

Super Bowl XLVI. What can be said that hasn’t already been funneled into the hype machine, chewed up, and spit out all over Lucas Oil Field? A team from Boston will face off against a team from New York (like we need any more of that). Beyond that, what use is forecasting? So instead, I’ll show you pictures of a breakfast burrito bar, in a room adorned with cave paintings of West Coast pass plays and the Lombardi Power Sweep.

Not that all of the pre-game buzz isn’t fun to take part in. I’ve gotten sucked in to my share of NFL Live pow-wows and countless ESPN.com features (if there’s a line of demarcation, it would be somewhere north of ESPN’s First Down. Watching Skip Bayless is at a level on which I hope never to find myself). I guess I’m just trying to temper my own investment in football, after two conference championship games that ultimately made me hate myself for caring as much as I do about the outcome. During Super Bowl XLII in 2008, with the Patriots down 10-7 in the fourth quarter, I rallied my buddies around the premise that New England was losing because, for some stupid reason, I had made the executive decision to watch the game on a different television than usual (my roommate had a flatscreen, so we decided to set it up in the living room in lieu of my old 20″ Panasonic. Never mind that the ploy actually worked (after we plugged the old TV back in, the Pats drove for a TD to take the lead). In the end, the Giants won and I ended up feeling like a moron.

The Lombardi Power Sweep, as drawn by the author. I'm sure my co-workers noted the double guard pull.

I have to travel for business during Super Bowl weekend for the second straight year, and sad as it may be, the truth is that it really throws my life out of whack. It shouldn’t bother me like it does. I wish I cared a little (lot) less sometimes. But I know that in the end I’ll find a way to watch the game, and whatever the final score, my life will only feel changed for a day or two until I get back to real life. For that little while I’ll probably seem weird to the people around me, like today, when I drew diagrams of football plays no one in my office understands and hung them above a tray of scrambled eggs because it’s Super Bowl week and it’s football and I suppose that’s reason enough sometimes.

NEW ENGLAND (-2.5) over NY Giants

That Championship Feeling

As the NFL season nears a close, I can’t help but still be excited for what will be a fantastic final three games. The Ravens, Patriots, 49ers, and Giants present intriguing matchups any way you pair them.

AFC Championship: Baltimore (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND

As for analysis this week, what can be said that hasn’t already been in regards to these teams? We know their strengths and weaknesses. We get their M.O.s. The Patriots will look to create one-on-one matchups for their tight ends against the Ravens’ aging linebackers, while Baltimore will look to establish the run while working in the deep ball. It all comes down to pressure here–if Tom Brady’s given all day to throw, he will inevitably find the seams in any defense. Pressure Joe Flacco, and New England can expect a turnover or two.

The Ravens won’t face the sort of pressure Houston brought last week, but they can’t expect Brady to gift wrap the sort of interceptions T.J. Yates served up, either. This one will be close, and I’ll take the points here.

NFC Championship: SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants

All season the Niners have been undervalued, underestimated. They’ve been world-beaters against the spread, and after watching them last week (save for those last two Saints drives where no one seemed to be able to get a hand on Darren Sproles or Jimmy Graham), their defense looked incredibly solid. Great tackling, pursuit to the ball, and defensive pass rush. Alex Smith looked confident, and that quarterback bootleg in the fourth quarter was something right out of Tecmo Super Bowl.

Conversely, the Giants are the hottest team in the league right now. Eli Manning is playing at the apex of his talents right now, and the New York defensive line is finally healthy and looking like 2007 resurrected. Although they could wreak havoc today, I also think that the Giants will face a much stingier and complete team than they did with either Atlanta or Green Bay. These are probably the two most complete teams in the NFC (and maybe the NFL) this season, in fact. But even though logic points to New York, I just like San Francisco here. Call it the same feeling as last week. Are we in for a Harbaugh Bowl?

Football’s Best Weekend

The NFL Playoffs’ Divisional Round is consistently the best weekend of the season. Two days, four great games. And as last week’s Wild Card games proved, there’s almost always an upset hiding in the mix. It’s just a matter of figuring out which one.

If there’s one thing that makes this year’s Divisional games so compelling, it’s the clash of styles. Three out of four games (the exception being Houston at Baltimore) present teams with very different, opposing strengths. This week is as much a contest of ideologies as it is the teams that represent them.

SAN FRANCISCO (+4) over New Orleans

If I had to pick one upset this weekend with my life on the line, this is the one. The public predictably loves the Saints here, but there’s so many factors that point to the Niners. Besides the fact that N.O. is just not the same team outdoors; that the 49ers have the best scoring defense and the second best best kicking duo in the league (Oakland); and that S.F. has the exact skill set needed to upset a high-flying team (basically a mix of the Super Bowls 25 and 42 gameplans–pressure the quarterback, win the turnover battle, and grind the clock); it’s a gut feeling that makes me feel great about San Francisco. They are absolutely going to pull the upset here.

Denver (+13.5) over NEW ENGLAND

This one is disappointing, in that I’d love to believe in the Broncos as much straight-up as I do getting thirteen and a half points. What does that say about my support of Tebow, and what are the larger implications (head v. heart, emotion v. reason, etc.) that it represents?

I guess all I can say is, emotion seems wise when you win, and semi-ridiculous when you lose (add money to the equation and double that feeling). The Broncos can keep it close for a while, but if Tom Brady gets any sort of time to throw, it’s only a matter of time until things get out of reach.

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Houston

It’s in the Ravens’ hands. If they play their game, they will not lose, save for T.J. Yates stealing the collective skills of Joe Montana, Dan Marino, and John Elway in some glowing football like the aliens in Space Jam.

(Yes, there’s absolutely a 98 percent chance I’ll regret choosing that reference. Though I have to say, if you’re an alien bent on stealing the mojo of a group of NBA players from 1995, is Shawn Bradley even in your top 200 choices, let alone top five?)

As long as they get Ray Rice his touches and don’t get beat deep, the Ravens are winning this one.

NY Giants (+7.5) over GREEN BAY

Another game where I just don’t like the line, given New York’s ability to effectively rush the passer without committing more than their defensive line. I can see them throwing a 4-2-5 defense at the Packers, forcing Rodgers to stay in the pocket, and stifling the passing game. This game is the most difficult pick, in my opinion. Green Bay finished the season on a bit of a lull, while the Giants got hot on the shoulders of Eli Manning (having a career year). It wouldn’t surprise me if things swung either way in this game, but I’ll take Green Bay to win but not cover.

A Few Wild Card Thoughts

We’re keeping it simple this week, with just a few points Wild Card related. In the future, we’ll cover the divisional round–a.k.a., the greatest weekend of the NFL season–in more depth. For now, here are your Week 18 picks:

HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati

The Bengals seem to be the hot pick right now, as the Texans are missing Matt Shaub and Mario Williams, and trotting out a less-than-healthy Andre Johnson. Yet for all of Cincinnati’s press, they’ve really not performed well against playoff teams this year. Add a rookie QB (Dalton), the Texans’ defense, and home field advantage, and I like Houston.

Detroit (+10.5) over NEW ORLEANS

This pick violates a few common-sense principles, namely that you don’t pick against the Saints at home, and you don’t pick a playoff underdog if you don’t think they can win straight-up. While I do think the Lions can hang with the Saints, they’ll need some turnovers and red zone stops to win. Ultimately, that line is just so high.

NY GIANTS (-3) over Atlanta

As much as I’d love to take the Falcons as an upset pick here (you figure one out of four games will typically be an upset, it’s just isolating that one), but I see this one relatively close until the fourth quarter. Eli Manning has been the best fourth quarter quarterback in the league this season (and all-time, in fact), and I think the Giants just wear down a finesse Atlanta team playing the rare outdoor game (the Falcons played three quarters of their games indoors this year). We all know the rap on Atlanta–beats up on the weak teams, can’t hang with the big boys. Now’s their chance to prove us wrong.

DENVER (+8.5) over Pittsburgh

Fair enough. I’ve taken the bait, taken the Broncos even though they seem to have no conventional chance in this game. But the Steelers are just beat up enough, and susceptible to the run, that if Denver keeps it close through three quarters, who knows what happens. A few musts for the Broncos (nothing groundbreaking here, but still):

1. Put Roethlisberger on the ground.

2. Pound McGahee to open up the occasional play-action rollout.

3. Absolutely cannot turn it over. As a corollary, Tebow cannot hold on the ball forever. If it’s not there, get rid of it, and live to fight another down.

NFL Week 17 Quick Picks

As it should, it all comes down to Week 17. Cowboys/Giants–one team goes to the playoffs, the other goes home. It’s the old Texas Deathmatch: loser leaves town. As for Denver–beat the Chiefs and you’re in. Oakland needs a win and a Broncos loss. And don’t think Kyle Orton wouldn’t love to spoil the whole thing for Denver.

(Was that a double negative? We’re pulling out all the stops for the last week of the regular season!)

Seeding is also up for grabs, most notably in the AFC, where Baltimore can lock up the number two seed with a win, and the Bengals/Jets/Titans fight it out for the six seed. The NFC deuce remains San Francisco’s with a win. If not, New Orleans could grab that first-round bye.

The Picks (Home teams in caps):

PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Washington

ATLANTA (-9.5) over Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-11.5) over ST LOUIS

Chicago (+2.5) over MINNESOTA

GREEN BAY (+6.5) over Detroit

NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas

Carolina (+7) over NEW ORLEANS

Tennessee (-1) over HOUSTON

Baltimore (-2) over CINCINNATI

Pittsburgh (-7) over CLEVELAND

Kyle Orton would love to ruin the Broncos' playoff hopes after they traded him mid-season..

Indianapolis (+3) over JACKSONVILLE

MIAMI (-2.5) over NY Jets

Buffalo (+10) over NEW ENGLAND

San Diego (+3) over OAKLAND

Kansas City (+2) over DENVER

ARIZONA (-2.5) over Seattle

The Unvitation: NFL Week 16 Picks

The invites are out for the NFL’s big January soiree, and some guests are a lock. As in Drew Brees, who’s only 305 yards from breaking Dan Marino’s 27-year-old record for most passing yards in a season (5,084). He fell just short in 2008, becoming only the second player to eclipse the 5,000 yard mark, and he’ll certainly have his shot with two games to go.

But it’s not just record-holders that are invited. We also want to recognize the little people, but that guest list is one that we just can’t figure out. Wait– Philip Rivers, so you are free in January after all? Why the sudden change? Did you swipe Tim Tebow’s invitation from the mailbox? Kansas City, we thought you’d be too embarrassed to attend, what, with the recent injuries and terminations at home. Actually, why don’t we just save ourselves some time. Dear AFC West: there’s only one seat at the table, guys. You sort it out and get back to us. And Mark Sanchez–do you have to wait until the last minute to RSVP every single year?

Eagles, take note: Elaine flew all the way to India to stick it to Sue Ellen Mischke.

Which brings us to the Philadelphia Eagles. Talk about an unvitation. You were the first team to get an invite, way back in August, and after what happened the next few months, we have to admit, we never expected you to actually show up. I mean, when you’re getting married all the way in India, the invitation is just a social nicety. Maybe we’d get an extra-nice gift, since you couldn’t make it in person. And then you had to go all Benes on us.

The Picks:

Oakland (+2.5) over KANSAS CITY

Denver (-2.5) over BUFFALO

TENNESSEE (-8) over Jacksonville

Arizona (+4.5) over CINCINNATI

Miami (+7) over NEW ENGLAND

Cleveland (+11) over BALTIMORE

NY Giants (+3) over NY JETS

Minnesota (+6) over WASHINGTON

Yes, the "Dream Team" is still alive in the playoff picture.

CAROLINA (-7.5) over Tampa Bay

PITTSBURGH (-10) over St. Louis

DETROIT (-1) over San Diego

San Francisco (-1.5) over SEATTLE

Philadelphia (+1.5) over DALLAS

GREEN BAY (-11) over Chicago

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Atlanta

NFL Week 15 Quick Picks

NY GIANTS (-6) over Washington

Green Bay (-11) over KANSAS CITY

New Orleans (-7) over MINNESOTA

Seattle (+3.5) over CHICAGO

Miami (PK) over BUFFALO

Carolina (+4.5) over HOUSTON

Tennessee (-6.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

ST LOUIS (+7) over Cincinnatti

Detroit (-2.5) over OAKLAND

DENVER (+7) over New England

NY Jets (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

ARIZONA (-6) over Cleveland

Baltimore (-2) over SAN DIEGO

Pittsburgh (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

NFL Week 14 Quick Picks

The Miami Dolphins have been solid gold this past month, and look for another big week against the Eagles. The Ravens, as we know, play to the level of their competition. The Bears will struggle to score points against the Denver defense, so Tebow doesn’t have to be magic in this contest–just good enough to control the game. And the Saints are a little less saintly on the road. That’s all you need to know about Week 14. On to the picks:

Indianapolis (+16) over BALTIMORE

CINCINNATI (-3) over Houston

GREEN BAY (-11) over Oakland

NY JETS (-10.5) over Kansas City

Minnesota (+10.5) over DETROIT

TENNESSEE (+3.5) over New Orleans

MIAMI (-3) over Philadelphia

New England (-7.5) over WASHINGTON

CAROLINA (+3) over Atlanta

JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Tampa Bay

San Francisco (-3.5) over ARIZONA

DENVER (-3) over Chicago

Buffalo (+7) over SAN DEIGO

NY Giants (+4.5) over DALLAS

SEATTLE (-10) over St. Louis

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 96-89-7

Westward Ho!

Is it manifest destiny? Cash? A longer contract that brings Albert Pujols to California? Or did he just get a look at the new Marlins uniforms and change his mind about Miami?  Can this possibly make the Angels (who also added starter C.J. Wilson) serious contenders in an AL West division that features the two-time American League champions?

Combined with the upcoming sale of the Dodgers, 2012 could be a big year for baseball in Los Angeles.

Thursday night NFL pick

Cleveland (+14) over PITTSBURGH

 

Looking In the Abyss: NFL Week 13 Picks

With the Indianapolis Colts traveling to Foxborough Sunday night, 0-12 looks like a distinct possibility. The Rams and Dolphins have somewhat pulled things together as of late, and so, with the Ravens, Titans, Texans, and Jaguars sill to play in the next month, the Colts look like a shoo-in for the draft’s number one pick.

In fact, it’s already “let’s order custom jerseys of the guy we hope our team will draft next spring” time in Indianapolis. This is always high comedy, especially when the team decides to go another direction, trades the pick, or any of the other handful of outcomes occur that make the jersey irrelevant. At the NFL Draft each April, why are there always guys dressed in $200 customized jerseys with prospective names and numbers?

Answer: these are usually Jets fans.

In all seriousness, this happens more than it should. Take the 1999 Draft, when Philadelphia Eagles fans in #34 Ricky Williams jerseys packed Radio City Music Hall and watched their team draft Donovan McNabb instead.

Much like when you paint your face and/or torso for a game and your team loses, when you drop two bills for a jersey that becomes obsolete before it ever even had a chance to exist and wear said jersey in public, at some point you’ll have to go home and see yourself in the mirror. At that point, you’re the guy in Hal Holbrook’s metaphor to Bud Fox.

With that, Week 13 picks (home team in caps):

Tennessee (+1) over BUFFALO

CHICAGO (-9) over Kansas City

Oakland (+3) over MIAMI

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH

Baltimore (-7) over CLEVELAND

NY Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON

Atlanta (-1.5) over HOUSTON

Carolina (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY

NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) over Detroit

Denver (+1.5) over MINNESOTA

St. Louis (+14) over SAN FRANCISCO

Dallas (-4.5) over ARIZONA

Green Bay (-7) over NY GIANTS

NEW ENGLAND (-20) over Indianapolis

San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Last Week: 7-7-1